O/T In or out

[howmanynames2pick]

I bow to some long and knowledgeable answers/posts on this thread.
Maybe I you will have answer/opinion on the following?
1) if we vote out will that mean UKIP will disband?
2) will all the people who have set up businesses here have to go back?
3) will Staples have a lot of caravans for sale?

[Maxross]

"The point is that if we don't take back control of our borders and control the numbers entering our country our services will soon be at breaking point."

As I have already stated, we can't 'take control of our borders' unless we also depart the EEA. Freedom of a movement is requirement of membership of the EEA and there is no way the United Kingdom will be granted an exemption. Everyone on the Leave side seems to have forgotten about it and believe we can shut the door once we've departed the EU. This is absolutely not the case.

So unless Leave want us to also quit the EEA - which would be absolutely catastrophic for our economy - we will have no more control of our borders outside of the EU than we do now.

This is interesting as the United Kingdom doesn't necessarily need an exemption, chapter 4 of the EEA Agreement specifies certain safeguard measures that would allow us to unilaterally suspend FoM for an indefinite period.

The ESM is a product of the EEA Agreement, and the EU's internal market is a product of the Treaty of Rome/Lisbon.
The rules differ. Leaving the EU means leaving the Internal Market with its Common External Tariff (which goes into the EU coffers).

We can avoid Freedom of Movement, or suspend it, while we renegotiate the EEA Agreement or negotiate a bespoke British option.
In the event of a Brexit the Norway model would be of interest because in their case FoM is limited to the private sector, and then only with a job offer. This is in the latest version of the agreement, the original version refers to movement of people rather than workers. Norway's financial contribution is more in the nature of overseas aid rather than a budget contribution.

The global prospects are far more interesting when you consider that the other 168 independent sovereign nations on this planet are all doing better economically than the EU; the EU is ahead of Antarctica, the EU is the slowest growing Economic Bloc in the world.

The vast majority of the population of the world feel no inclination or pressure to join a supranational anti-democratic kleptocracy, especially one doing so badly economically and with such serious problems.  Economists in India or China would not believe that we were even considering remaining.
Last year we were told by Cameron that the Chinese visit heralded a new 'Golden era of trade' which was 'vital for our economy', and he was telling the truth for once. If we remain we will need the money for bail outs when the Eurozone implodes; both Italy and France have major economic problems, Greece will need another cash injection, and the smaller nation states are suffering badly.

The Remain side are constantly talking down our prospects outside of the EU, belittling Englanders. As the fifth largest economy in the World we should be confident and bold enough to make our own trade deals on the global market rather than be continuously held back by the EU. 
The UK could become as successful as Hong Kong if trading globally, and not held back by trade deals that have to be agreed by 27 other member states every time.

This is a very interesting post and a welcome departure from your previous style. I've had a read through the document you have cited and found the relevant articles. Can you precisely detail under which conditions we would be able to suspend freedom of movement? The articles state that any safeguarding measure is very much meant to be short term rather than "indefinite" with reviews conducted st least every 3 months. Can you explain how the indefinite suspension of FoM would be achieved? And finally, the document makes clear that any measure taken that creates an imbalance permits other states to take "proportionate rebalancing measures".  Would that not allow existing states to take action against us?

It's not so much a case of talking down Britain, as pointing out that an exit vote represents a jump into the unknown and with that comes risk. The argument is - do we have more power on our own "free to negotiate without the EU interference" or as a strong player within a large trading block of sovereign nations - Ie collective bargaining power?

[Maxross]

As an aside that some of you may or may not be interested in, I had a chat to my Grandfather this evening. He's 103 and turns 104 this year. He was one of the last out of Dunkirk. He told me he's going to be voting in. He says that had their been an EU back in 1914 he doesn't think there would have been a WW1 or WW2. He said he felt strongly on this, as many of his friends and family lost their lives fighting for peace. He went on to say that the EU had given the European continent a common goal and solidarity. Interesting to get an opinion from someone who lived through that era, although I'm sure that others had a different opinion just like today.

[Ed Kandi]

Italy is sitting on a 1.3trillion Euro debt apparently,  more than the debt that triggered the credit crisis, Portugal France and Spain are not too healthy either 

Economically, what Cameron and Osborne are trying to persuade us to do is like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.  We need to take the nearest lifeboat, raise the Union Jack, and start rowing!

The comments by Dyson in the Independent today are very informative regarding trade after a Brexit  8)

[Dipdodah]

Italy is sitting on a 1.3trillion Euro debt apparently,  more than the debt that triggered the credit crisis, Portugal France and Spain are not too healthy either 

Economically, what Cameron and Osborne are trying to persuade us to do is like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.  We need to take the nearest lifeboat, raise the Union Jack, and start rowing!

The comments by Dyson in the Independent today are very informative regarding trade after a Brexit  8)

!.3 trillion debt, how many years in seconds is that?  The mind boggles

[Maxross]

Italy is sitting on a 1.3trillion Euro debt apparently,  more than the debt that triggered the credit crisis, Portugal France and Spain are not too healthy either 

Economically, what Cameron and Osborne are trying to persuade us to do is like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic.  We need to take the nearest lifeboat, raise the Union Jack, and start rowing!

The comments by Dyson in the Independent today are very informative regarding trade after a Brexit  8)

U.K. Debt is currently estimated at 1.64 trillion. One of the big problems seems to me to be the obsession with Austerity. It's a flawed strategy and sucks demand out of the market me. That was the case during the Great Depression and it has been the case for the past 6 years too. The huge rises in inequality brought about by free market economics have also contributed to subdued demand in my opinion too. Mark Blyth and Paul Krugman have both written good books on these subjects.

Mark Blyth made this short simple video which does a great job of putting the whole argument in a nutshell.

https://youtu.be/go2bVGi0ReE

[Dipdodah]

very good.

I am very pleased we are all in it TOGETHER.

[howmanynames2pick]

Speaking to someone earlier who doesn't live too far from Staples.
He said there was 400 caravans housing around 1400 each paying £55 per week rent.
(I am prepared to be corrected on this as I'm directly quoting what I was told)
They pay their taxes and nic but at the end of the  year return home and claim tax back!
And of course and child benefits are paid to families abroad.
It's madness

[howmanynames2pick]

Dyson and Joe Bamford say out
Branson and Sugar say in.

All fairly respected business men.
But if they can't agree how are we to make a judgement?
To me it comes down to if you want to be in charge of your own destiny.....
I'll go with vacuum cleaners and jcb

[green hats mate]

Another good weekend for brexit .     Dodgy Dave busy again with another strategy to entice the stay at homes to rush to the polling stations to vote Stay !!
Sorry Dave trying to scare and bully the OAPs with potential pension cuts will backfire like most your ill conceived plots .   
With your and Geo,s record on U turns it is more likely to be cut if you manage to carry on as PM.

[Maxross]

As an engineer myself, it's very hard not to respect Mr Dyson for his intellect and business acumen.  However, it's worth remembering just how committed he was to the U.K. economy when he moved production of his vacuum cleaners to the far east in order to save costs and made 800 British workers redundant in the process. It's a well established fact that many of the Brexiters have trumpeted the possibility of removing certain workers protections provided by the EU.  Perhaps that is what is attractive to manufacturers like Dyson and JCB? 

If you leave the UK in the hands of a gang of hard right free market ideologues like those leading the Brexit campaign, then results will be fairly predictable.  They believe we can be more competitive on the world stage by making the workforce "more flexible".  In lay mans terms that means it's easier to exploit you, in terms of wages/work hours/holidays and easier to fire you.  You only need to do some very basic research on the main protagonists of the out campaign to find out their political motivations.

[Maxross]

Speaking to someone earlier who doesn't live too far from Staples.
He said there was 400 caravans housing around 1400 each paying £55 per week rent.
(I am prepared to be corrected on this as I'm directly quoting what I was told)
They pay their taxes and nic but at the end of the  year return home and claim tax back!
And of course and child benefits are paid to families abroad.
It's madness

This is an interesting claim, but you are going to having to back up some of the claims with some hard facts otherwise it is simply conjecture.

Let's say we take the 400 caravans and 1400 people as fact, how many immigrants are living legitimately in actual properties in Boston?  I'd guess a lot more than 1400.  In addition, how do you know they are claiming their tax back and can you post some evidence of that?  We have to be very careful in this debate to make decision based on actual facts rather than myths.  And there is an awful lot of myth masquerading as fact out there at the moment.

One question I'd like to see answered re immigration by Brexit supporters here or on the national scene is this.  If we are to believe that we will "regain control of our borders" and reduce immigration down to the "tens of thousands", why is it that we are currently seeing higher immigration from OUTSIDE the EU than from inside?  The figures are as follows:

Annual Net Migration Year ending December 2015

From EU: 184,000
From outside EU: 188,000

And another question the figures throw up is, if we are being over run by migrants which the country doesn't need, why haven't we "taken control of our borders" and completely stopped the flow of non EU migrants? 

[Maxross]

very good.

I am very pleased we are all in it TOGETHER.

And I suppose you are blaming the EU for that rather than the Tory government we have had in power throughout the last 6 years?  It is a great act of self delusion if you believe that after 6 years of divesting in vital services, you are surprised when those services then fall apart and are no longer fit for purpose.  And it is an even greater feat of self delusion if you can then blame that on the EU/immigration and believe that the very people who perpetrated these policies are the ones who are now going to save you.  WAKE UP!

[Maxross]

Another good weekend for brexit .     Dodgy Dave busy again with another strategy to entice the stay at homes to rush to the polling stations to vote Stay !!
Sorry Dave trying to scare and bully the OAPs with potential pension cuts will backfire like most your ill conceived plots .   
With your and Geo,s record on U turns it is more likely to be cut if you manage to carry on as PM.

Absolutely.  If remain are to stand any chance now, then Dave needs to take a back seat.  The only silver lining is that the general population are now beginning to see what we on the left have known all along. 

[howmanynames2pick]

Hi there Max Ross
I did say I stand to be corrected.
You have questioned me (fair enough ) but haven't corrected me.
The Staples example is a snapshot really.
They have a largely immigrant based workforce based in their own "village" a win win for them.
We are at present allowing enough people in per year to repopulate a city the size of Newcastle.
Will our infrastructure  accommodate this?
The Quadrant development was being objected to on similar arguments.  500 new homes ...poss got a chance but 1000's?
There is a lot of talk of whether Turkey will enter...up to a point they already have.  Weren't they given eu passports in exchange for taking in "refugees"?
I'm not Dr Dolittle but on immigration it's worth speaking to a red squirrel