Pilgrims' Patter

The Forum => The B-Ark => Topic started by: Boston Standard on August 20, 2014, 10:25:43 AM

Title: Sternest tests
Post by: Boston Standard on August 20, 2014, 10:25:43 AM

Story - http://www.bostonstandard.co.uk/sport/boston-united/can-boston-united-bank-six-holiday-points-1-6248385

Title: Re: Sternest tests
Post by: Tipps End Pilgrim on August 20, 2014, 10:26:24 PM

On a slow news day, very interesting to notice that our first five games all follow in alphabetical order - Barrow, Brackley, Colwyn Bay, North Ferriby and Tamworth. Is this a first ?

DL

Title: Re: Sternest tests
Post by: Ferret on August 21, 2014, 12:39:43 PM

Probably one of those stats that appears rarer than it actually is as with people sharing birthdays etc.

It's the same with Brackley - AFC Fylde, Boston United, Gainsborough, Leamington...and then Worcester screw up any chance of continuing the run.

Title: Re: Sternest tests
Post by: chris b on August 21, 2014, 10:34:25 PM

Call our first five opponents of the season ABCDE
Then there are 120 ways of arranging these teams (5*4*3*2*1 or 5!)
ie
ABCDE
ABCED
ABDCE etc...
Only one of these ways is in alphabetical order - so the probability is 1/120

[I'm assuming here that we don't play the same team twice in the first five games.]

In 1992 our first 6 fixtures were in alphabetical order (ish)
Bloody Runcorn
Bromsgrove
Kidderminster
Stafford
Witton
Wycombe

If you are interested in  the sharing birthdays problem as mentioned by Ferret there's a nice explanation from Numberphile here:
http://youtu.be/a2ey9a70yY0 (http://youtu.be/a2ey9a70yY0)

Title: Re: Sternest tests
Post by: Martyn Bishop on August 22, 2014, 08:04:32 AM

Typical maths teacher with time on his hands!

Title: Re: Sternest tests
Post by: Ferret on August 22, 2014, 08:29:59 AM

I'm not so sure it's that simple Chris?  The probability must be swayed by who you are and the size of the pool you're drawing from. Example: if you're first game is against AC Fylde then the probability of you're next game being alphabetical is 1 or certainty. However, if you're first game is against Worcester then the probability becomes 0. As teams cannot play themselves, then it follows that the probability of alphabetical games is higher for Worcester than AC Fylde?

However.....whilst I was typing I've changed my mind to agree with you as if there were only three teams in the league then the probability would always be 0.5.....or 1/2!  For AFC Fylde,  the second alphabetical club becomes the certainty first game. Doh!