Brazil and here's why:
After qualifying in style and winning last years Confederations Cup, I have been finding it hard to look past Brazil in terms of winning the big one this summer. They have come under plenty of fire from the press both at home and abroad recently though for being the polar opposite of what a Brazil team should be though. Dunga has formed a group built on discipline, strength and pace; gone has the skill and flair of Brazil teams of the past. However, by replacing the flair and excitement there comes organization, a steely resilience and strong team spirit more associated with teams like England. This 'backs to the wall' attitude was typified when winning 3-1 in Argentina, a spectacular result which sealed qualification for South Africa.
Characters like Lucio, Gilberto Silva and Maicon have a wealth of experience, always an invaluable commodity. You need a top goalkeeper to win the World Cup and Julio Cesar is the best keeper in the world at present, he will make a massive difference in the tight games. The attacking trio of Kaka, Fabiano and Robinho can score goals against anyone but another key attribute of Dunga’s Brazil is how far the full backs push on. Michel Bastos and Maicon play as wide midfielders and they give Brazil another outlet when going forward. Lastly but certainly not leastly, one cannot overlook Brazil’s newfound threat from set plays. Be it from Elano or Dani Alves, the delivery into the danger area will be top class; you can bet they will be scoring a few headers this tournament, just as they did in last years Confederations Cup Final.
The one concern I do have over Brazil is the lack of strength in depth. There were one or two interesting choices Dunga made when selecting his squad, the exclusion of Ronaldinho was expected but the inclusion of Wolfsburg striker Grafite was, at least to me, a surprise. Luis Fabiano will rightly lead the line but Grafite is not an adequate back up. Adriano or Alexandre Pato would have been a more suitable replacement because as it stands, an injury to the Sevilla striker and I would worry.
That said, Luis Fabiano will spearhead the Brazil attack in South Africa and is sure to get amongst the goals. Fabiano has a bit of everything; he is good in the air, can hold the ball up, can run in behind or drop deep and is an excellent goal poacher and finisher. Put simply, I would regard him as one of the most complete forwards in world football at present. With the service set to be supplied to him by Kaka, Robinho and Elano, he will get chances and importantly he will take the majority of them.
Working on the basis I believe Brazil will win the World Cup, the top goalscorer/winning team double market opens up a potential opportunity for greater rewards. The Luis Fabiano/Brazil double pays 30/1 with Paddy Power and that is too big to turn down. If Brazil are to win the World Cup, Fabiano will have to score a few goals.
Brazil are rightly one of the favourites and look very much to me to be the team to beat. Their recent form over other top sides has been exemplary and their squad is as settled and happy as any other going to South Africa. If Dunga can keep his big players motivated and fresh, then World Cup no.6 will be heading to the Selecao.
Qwerty's world cup bets.
Brazil to win the World Cup @ 5/1
Luis Fabiano top goal scorer/Brazil outright winner double @ 30/1
Good luck whoever you back.